Short Term Signals

XGBOOST – A Unique Machine Learning Tool

CoindicatorBot utilizes XGBOOST, a cutting-edge machine learning algorithm that has won many data science competitions, to forecast the price increase. The forecasting model used by CoindicatorBot for the short term buy signal is specifically designed to predict that a coin’s price is going o increase by at least 3% within the next 3-6 hours time frame after the signal. The forecasting model was calibrated by using a training dataset collected over more than 2 months. The selected features in the training dataset included the following list of variables:

    • The percentage change in buy volume for the past 15, 30, and 60 minutes compared to the average buy volume in the past 24 hours
    • Following values are computed repeatedly using 15-min, 30-min, 60-min, and 120-min candle stick data (OHLC)
      – The slope of buy volume in the past 4 periods
      – The slope of buy volume in the past 96 periods
      – Stoch RSI Fast K value
      – Stoch RSI Slow D value
      – The moving average of Stoch RSI Fast K
      – The slope of Stoch RSI Fast K in the past 4 period
      – Chaikin Money Flow Index
      – ADX value
      – The slope of ADX in the past 4 periods
      – The sign of SQZ Momentum Index (0:negative, 1:positive)
      – The slope of SQZ momentum index in the past 4 periods
      – The sign of SMI (1: bigger than signal, 0: smaller than signal)
      – The value of SMI
      – The sign of MACD(1: bigger than signal, 0: smaller than signal)
      – The value of MACD
      – On Balance Volume value
      – The slope of OBV in the past 4 periods
      – Ichi cloud indicators (lagspan, baseline, conversion line, Span A, and Span B)
      – Aroon indicator value
      – Slope of Aroon indicator
      – Commodity Channel Index
      – Chaikin Volatility Index
      – The sign of KST (1: bigger than signal, 0: smaller than signal)
      – The slope of KST in the past 4 periods
      – The sign of TDI indices
    • Total volume
    • Buy volume in the past 15, 30, and 50 minutes
    • Percentage change in price in the last 15, 30, 60, and 120 minutes.
    • The total amount of buy orders for the first 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450, and 500 buy orders in the tradebook
    • The total amount of sell orders for the first 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450, and 500 sell orders in the tradebook
    • Total buy orders in the tradebook
    • Total sell orders in the tradebook
    • Buy Order/Sell Order Ratio for the first 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450, and 500 orders in the tradebook
    • Buy Order/Sell Order Ratio for the whole tradebook
    • Number of buy and sell walls in the tradebook
    • Spread of tradebook
    • Weighted and unweighted midprice in the tradebook

For those who are interested, you can see one of them here. Data

In addition to these features, the price increase/decrease within 3 hours was also computed after these indicators collected. The XGBOOST model relates these 169 technical indicators to the price increase/decrease within next three hours using past data and reveals complex relationships among all these indicators and the price increase/decrease within next 3 hours.

The bot runs the algorithm every 10 minutes and computes the same indicators for all coins, then use the calibrated model to predict whether or not the price will increase by at least 3% within next 3-6 hours time window. If the prediction score assigned to a coin is above a certain threshold, a detailed technical PDF report is created and the signal is sent to all subscribers at the same time. Note that these signals have probabilistic nature, so it is not always guaranteed that the price will increase as predicted.